In Q1 2024, Stocks across industries experienced, yet an unprecedented upward momentum. The momentum followed the dynamics of Q4 2023, which overtook the challenges at the end of Q3 2023, when all the key market indices, excluding Crude Oil (CL=F) and 10-Yr Bond (^TNX), declined from the top reached in late July 2023. In Q1 2024, the gains observed in Q4 2023 increased, far outpacing the declines at the end of Q3 2023. At the end of Q4 2023 the stocks prices were on the rise. In Q1 2024 they built on that momentum. The positive momentum appeared to be driven by the diminishing challenges, which led to the stocks and indices pushing through the beginning of 2024 with a significant improvement in performance. Hence, since Q4 2023, the stock market adjusted to the previous dynamics that have been leading to increasing market volatility, including inflation, world events, and other challenges that started in late Q2 2022 and in October 2023. The US elections in 2024 appear to have a limited impact on the dynamics. Hence, the performance and factors from the end of year 2024 remains the main drivers. On March 25, 2024, AroniSmart™ team, leveraging the NLP, Text and Sentiment Analysis, Machine Learning Econometrics and Time Series capabilities and Dominance Analysis of AroniSmartInvest ™ and AroniSmartIntelligence™, looked at the stock markets news and trends.
Q4 2023 was marked by strong resilience and ended with records performance, after a period with complex dynamics and given the current market factors, including the wars around the World, the US political situation, inflation and interest rates, and earnings seasons.
The stock market experienced an upward momentum in the first week of Q4 2023. However, in the second week, there were some unexpected world challenges with potential impact on Oil prices, technology, inflation, consumer confidence, and the projections following the earnings reports. These challenges impacted all the stock indices. The same
September 2023 ended with significant declines across all market indices, except Silver Dec 23 (SI=F) and Gold Dec 23 (GC=F).
Since October 2023 and pushing through the end of 2023, , the indices resumed their growth, experiencing improving trend with the following performances, Since October 2023 and Year-to-Date (YTD) as of March 22, 2024:
- NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC): 23.79% and 11.26%;
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI): 16.08% and 4.67%;
- S&P 500 (^GSPC): 20.64%. and 10.36%;
- Crude Oil index (CL=F): -9.60% and 14.81%;
- Russell 2000 (^RUT): 16.13% and 2.94%;
- Gold Dec 23 (GC=F): 2.31% and 2.16%;
- Silver Dec 23 (SI=F): 0.22% and -3.45%;
- CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No (^TNX): -14.63% and 6.88%;
- Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index: -22.72% and -1.06%;
Since the beginning of January 2024, the performance among the market indices has been mostly rising, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) by 4.67%, the Nasdaq (^IXIC) by 11.26% and S&P 500 (^GSPC) by 10.36% , and the Russel 2000 (^RUT) by 2.94%.
At the beginning of Q1 2024 the inflation seemed to be receding, the job market looked like slowing down, and the fears of recession focused on a slow soft landing. Hence, the expectations of the Federal Reserve ending the rate hikes and moving to cutting the rates were very high. The interest rate cuts were expected to sustain the stability of the market, as companies seemed ready cut the costs of borrowing and to sustain profitability. However, the inflation upward trend has remained.
At the beginning of the year, it was expected that the first interest cuts would come in the Apr/May 30-1 meeting. However, based on the reports and statements from the meetings over Q1 2024, the timelines for the interest cuts have been pushed well further, most likely in Q4 2024. The Q2 2024 meetings of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) are planned for : Apr/May 30-1 ; June 11-12 ; July 30-31.
Meanwhile, as highlighted in the February 2025 analysis by AroniSmart™ Team, Big Tech Companies have been engaged on the road to Artificial Intelligence, focusing on Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) and improving their Machine Learning capabilities (see AroniSmart™ Tech: Race for Artificial Intelligence (AI) Among Big Tech Companies Gaining Momentum - NVIDIA, APPLE, META, ALPHABET, AMD, INTEL. Let Us Revisit AI). In Q1 2024, most of these Big Tech companies like META, APPLE, NVIDIA, AMD, INTEL, and others have continued to harvest the results.
The results of the analysis using both AroniSmartIntelligence™ and AroniSmartInvest™ are below:
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Dynamics and Trends in Late January 2024.
The key findings highlight: Most of the stocks highlighted in early Q1 2024 analyses continued to drive the dynamics in late Q1 2024 and have maintained their impact throughout Q1 2024. Most maintained their upward trend and overall significant increase after a decline or a flat performance in the middle of January and February, and March 2024 (AroniSmartIntelligence™ and AroniSmartInvest™ Stock Market Sentiment and NLP Analysis: AroniSmartIntelligence™ and AroniSmartInvest™ Stock Market Sentiment and NLP Analysis: Market Sentiment and Highlighted Stocks in Mid December 2023).
Trend wise, the challenges in the first month of Q1 2024, were faced and the market dynamics fueled the upward trend in February 2024 and continued the momentum in March 2024.
The insights below are based on the data as of March 25, 2024. AroniSmart™ team will continue to update detailed analyses.
Fig 1-a: AroniSmartInvest Modules
Fig 1 -b: AroniSmartIntelligence Modules
Fig 2-a: Market Segments
Fig 2-b: Market Profile Stocks to Watch
Fig 3-a:Market Profile: Short Term Growth Stocks
Fig 3-b: Market Profile: High Performing Stocks
Fig 3-c: Market Profile: Long Term Stocks
Fig 3-d: Market Profile: Reversal Up Stocks
Fig 3-e: Market and Stock Segmentation
Market Profile and Sentiment: Key Fig 3-Fig 3-f: Stocks to Watch and Tags
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Statisticians, Data Scientists, Business and Financial Analysts, Savvy Investors, Engineers, Researchers, Students, Teachers, Economists, Political Analysts, and most of the practitioners use Advanced Analytics to answer questions, to support informed decision making or to learn.
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AronismartIntelligence™ includes modules covering Machine Learning and Big Data mining, Unstructured Text Analysis, Sentiment and Emotion Analytics, Bayesian Statistics and other advanced analytics.
Fig 4-a: Sentiment Analysis: Stocks to watch A - D
Fig 4-b: Sentiment Analysis: Stocks to watch D - M
Fig 4-c: Sentiment Analysis: Stocks to watch M- X
Fig 4-d: Sentiment Analysis: Stocks to watch WW - X and Word Tags
NLP Sentiment Analysis: Key Word Tags
Fig 5-a: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags A - E
Fig 5-b: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags E - J
Fig 5-c: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags J - P
Fig 5-d: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags L - P
Fig 5-e: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags P - S
Fig 5-f: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags S - U
Fig 5-g: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags U - W
Fig 5-h: Sentiment Analysis: Neural Tree
Bayesian Modeling and NLP analysis: Stocks to Watch and High, Short, and Long Term Growth Stocks
Fig 6-a: Stocks Bayesian Network View: Watch, High Performing and Short Growth
Fig 6-b: Sentiment and Tags: Some Stocks to Watch and Key Tags Sentiment - Rectangular View
Fig 6-c: Sentiment and Tags: Positivity and Some Stocks to Watch - Circular View.
Fig 6-d: Sentiment and Tags: Positivity and Some Stocks to Watch - Helix View.
More detailed analyses can be conducted using AroniSmartIntelligence™ Big Data, Machine Learning, Time Series and Sentiment Analysis capabilities.
For more on AroniSmartIntelligence and AroniSmartInvest capabilities, visit AroniSoft web site by clicking here. AroniSmartInvest™ and AroniSmartIntelligence ™ are available on Apple's App Store.
©2024 AroniSoft LLC
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GET ARONISMARTINTELLIGENCE™ on App Store
AroniSmartIntelligence™, the leading tool for Advanced Analytics, Machine Learning & Data Science
Statisticians, Data Scientists, Business and Financial Analysts, Savvy Investors, Engineers, Researchers, Students, Teachers, Economists, Political Analysts, and most of the practitioners use Advanced Analytics to answer questions, to support informed decision making or to learn.
AroniSmartIntelligence™ is a leading Advanced Analytics, Machine Learning and Data Science tool, with optimized cutting edge Statistics models, Econometrics, Big Data and Text Analytics.
AronismartIntelligence™ includes modules covering Machine Learning and Big Data mining, Unstructured Text Analysis, Sentiment and Emotion Analytics, Bayesian Statistics and other advanced analytics.
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