Stocks across industries have been experiencing an upward momentum in late Q4 2023. The dynamics followed the challenges at the end of Q3 2023 , when all the key market indices, excluding Crude Oil (CL=F) and 10-Yr Bond (^TNX), declined from the top reached in late July 2023. As Q4 2023 started, the declines at the end of Q3 2023 started slowing down. By the end of Q4 2023 the stocks prices were on the rise and have been following that trend since then. The positive momentum corresponds to the diminishing challenges, with the stocks and indices pushing through the beginning of 2024 with significant improvement in performance. Hence, since Q4 2023, the stock market adjusted to the previous dynamics that have been leading to increasing market volatility, including inflation, world events, and other challenges that started in late Q2 2022 and in October 2023. The US elections in 2024 are expected to impact the dynamics, but the performance and factors from the end of year 2024 remain the main drivers. On January 25, 2024, AroniSmart™ team, leveraging the NLP, Text and Sentiment Analysis, Machine Learning Econometrics and Time Series capabilities and Dominance Analysis of AroniSmartInvest ™ and AroniSmartIntelligence™, looked at the stock markets news and trends.
Q4 2023 was marked by strong resilience and ended with records performance, after a period with complex dynamics and given the current market factors, including the wars around the World, the US political situation, inflation and interest rates, and earnings seasons.
The stock market experienced an upward momentum in the first week of Q4 2023. However, in the second week, there were some unexpected world challenges with potential impact on Oil prices, technology, inflation, consumer confidence, and the projections following the upcoming earnings reports. These challenges impacted all the stock indices.
November 2023 ended with significant declines across all market indices, except Silver Dec 23 (SI=F) and Gold Dec 23 (GC=F).
Since December 2023 and pushing through mid January 2024, , the indices resumed their growth, experiencing improving trend with the following performances, Since November 2023 and Year-to-Date (YTD) as of January 24, 2024:
- NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC): 18.04% and 3.33%
- Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI): 14.35% and 0.95%
- S&P 500 (^GSPC): 15.22%. and 2.61%
- Crude Oil index (CL=F): -7.89% and 7.630%
- Russell 2000 (^RUT): 17.65% and -2.53%
- Gold Dec 23 (GC=F): 2.31% and 2.16%
- Silver Dec 23 (SI=F): 0.22% and -3.45%
- CBOE Interest Rate 10 Year T No (^TNX): -14.63% and 6.88%
Since the beginning of January 2024, the performance among the market indices has been mostly rising, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) by 0.31%, the Nasdaq (^IXIC) by 3.33% and S&P 500 (^GSPC) by 2.61%. Only the Russel 2000 (^RUT) went down, by -2.53%.
Going forward, with inflation now receding, the job market slowing down, and fears of recession focusing on a slow soft landing, the expectations of the Federal Reserve ending the rate hikes and moving to cutting the rates are very high.
The interest rate cuts are expected to sustain the stability of the market, as companies will cut the costs of borrowing and the profitability will remain high. The 2024 upcoming meetings of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) are planned for : January 30-31 ; March 19-20 ; Apr/May 30-1 ; June 11-12 ; July 30-31. It is expected that the first interest cuts may come in the Apr/May 30-1 meeting.
The results of the analysis using both AroniSmartIntelligence™ and AroniSmartInvest™ are below:
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Dynamics and Trends in Late January 2024.
The key findings highlight: Most of the stocks highlighted in early Q4 2024 analyses continued to drive the dynamics in late Q4 2024 and have maintained their impact throughout January 2024. Most saw a significant increase after a decline in the last weeks of October 2023 and recovered over December 2023 (AroniSmartIntelligence™ and AroniSmartInvest™ Stock Market Sentiment and NLP Analysis: AroniSmartIntelligence™ and AroniSmartInvest™ Stock Market Sentiment and NLP Analysis: Market Sentiment and Highlighted Stocks in Mid December 2023).
Trend wise, most of the gains that happened in late July - early August 2023, were impacted in mid-August 2023 and September 2023 and come back in the first week of Q4 2024, before stepping back and then fueling the upward trend in November and early December 2023 and continuing the momentum in January 2024.
The insights below are based on the data as of January 25, 2024. AroniSmart™ team will continue to update detailed analyses.
Fig 1-a: AroniSmartInvest Modules
Fig 1 -b: AroniSmartIntelligence Modules
Fig 2-a: Market Segments
Fig 2-b: Market Profile Stocks to Watch
Fig 3-a:Market Profile: Short Term Growth Stocks
Fig 3-b: Market Profile: High Performing Stocks
Fig 3-c: Market Profile: Long Term Stocks
Fig 3-d: Market Profile: Reversal Up Stocks
Fig 3-e: Market and Stock Segmentation
Market Profile and Sentiment: Key Fig 3-Fig 3-f: Stocks to Watch and Tags
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Statisticians, Data Scientists, Business and Financial Analysts, Savvy Investors, Engineers, Researchers, Students, Teachers, Economists, Political Analysts, and most of the practitioners use Advanced Analytics to answer questions, to support informed decision making or to learn.
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AronismartIntelligence™ includes modules covering Machine Learning and Big Data mining, Unstructured Text Analysis, Sentiment and Emotion Analytics, Bayesian Statistics and other advanced analytics.
Fig 4-a: Sentiment Analysis: Stocks to watch A - C
Fig 4-b: Sentiment Analysis: Stocks to watch C - I
Fig 4-c: Sentiment Analysis: Stocks to watch I - P
Fig 4-d: Sentiment Analysis: Stocks to watch P - Z and Word Tags
NLP Sentiment Analysis: Key Word Tags
Fig 5-a: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags A - D
Fig 5-b: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags D - G
Fig 5-c: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags G - L
Fig 5-d: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags L - P
Fig 5-e: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags P - S
Fig 5-f: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags S - W
Fig 5-g: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags S - Y
Fig 5-h: Sentiment Analysis: Word Tags Positivity Score
Bayesian Modeling and NLP analysis: Stocks to Watch and High, Short, and Long Term Growth Stocks
Fig 6-a: Stocks Bayesian Network View: Watch, High Performing and Short Growth
Fig 6-b: Sentiment and Tags: Some Stocks to Watch and Key Tags Sentiment - Rectangular View
Fig 6-c: Sentiment and Tags: Positivity and Some Stocks to Watch - Circular View.
Fig 6-d: Sentiment and Tags: Positivity and Some Stocks to Watch - Helix View.
More detailed analyses can be conducted using AroniSmartIntelligence™ Big Data, Machine Learning, Time Series and Sentiment Analysis capabilities.
For more on AroniSmartIntelligence and AroniSmartInvest capabilities, visit AroniSoft web site by clicking here. AroniSmartInvest™ and AroniSmartIntelligence ™ are available on Apple's App Store.
©2024 AroniSoft LLC
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GET ARONISMARTINTELLIGENCE™ on App Store
AroniSmartIntelligence™, the leading tool for Advanced Analytics, Machine Learning & Data Science
Statisticians, Data Scientists, Business and Financial Analysts, Savvy Investors, Engineers, Researchers, Students, Teachers, Economists, Political Analysts, and most of the practitioners use Advanced Analytics to answer questions, to support informed decision making or to learn.
AroniSmartIntelligence™ is a leading Advanced Analytics, Machine Learning and Data Science tool, with optimized cutting edge Statistics models, Econometrics, Big Data and Text Analytics.
AronismartIntelligence™ includes modules covering Machine Learning and Big Data mining, Unstructured Text Analysis, Sentiment and Emotion Analytics, Bayesian Statistics and other advanced analytics.
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